Riverside County Foreclosure Report - June 2008

FORECLOSURERADAR.COM – Riverside County – June 2008

In reviewing the foreclosure statistics for Riverside County we found that we continue to be near the peak of the foreclosure activity in this county. Due to the recent passing of SB 1137 we expect the number of NOD’s and NOS’s to decrease drastically for a couple months while the banks catch up to the new notification process, once this is complete we expect the number of NOD’s and NOS’s to come back with a vengeance as the banks catch up on the backlog.  For the full impact of SB 1137 on the foreclosure process review our earlier post titled SB 1137 will change foreclosure numbers.

The ratio of the NOS’s to NOD’s, with a 90 day lag, continues at an alarmingly high ratio, as it has increased greatly since the first half of 2007.  In the first half of 2007 the ratio was 63% now we are at 86%. (Why a 90 day lag on the data? NOD’s expire and move into NOS’s at 90 days)

Further, the ratio of cancelations to NOS’s has decreased sharply in the last couple years to just 11% for the first five months of the year.  Historically this ratio runs around 60% of the NOS’s in an appreciating market.

The number of NOD’s have decreased 5% from their peak in March 2008, we expect them to increase to a new peak once SB 1137 takes hold.

Here is where we break out the crystal ball, we predict the following:

NOS’s for July will be 4,590,

NOS’s for August will be 4,730

NOS’s for September will be 4,490

We used 88% of the NOD’s to come up with these numbers with a 90 day lag. Keep in mind that the NOS cure rate is still around 11% so the actual number of foreclosures will be less.  Also, SB1137 may greatly distort these predictions. In either case they will go bad in the months stated or all come through in the future due to the SB, the SB does not provide any real help for the homeowner it just delays the inevitable.

How was last month’s prediction?

We predicted the NOS’s would hit approx. 4,100 in July 2008, they came in at 4,619. Our prediction was 11.2% light, that is why they call it a prediction.

Here is the raw data:

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Data Quick's June Southland Sales Report

Data Quick reported hat home sales in Southern California continued at their slowest pace in more than two decades last month as many potential buyers and sellers held off if they could, or struggled with mortgage financing if they couldn't, a real estate information service reported.

A total of 17,424 new and resale houses and condos sold in Los Angeles, Riverside, San Diego, Ventura, San Bernardino and Orange counties last month. That was up 3.0 percent from 16,917 the previous month and down 13.6 percent from 20,166 for June a year ago, according to DataQuick Information Systems.

While last month's sales were the highest in ten months, it was still the slowest June in DataQuick's statistics, which go back to 1988. The June average is 28,488 sales, the peak was reached in 2005 when 40,156 homes sold.

The median price paid for a Southland home was $355,000 last month, down 4.1 percent from $370,000 in May and down 29.3 percent from $502,000 for June 2007. The peak of $505,000 was reached in March, April, May and July of last year.

For the complete article go to Data Quick.