San Bernardino County Foreclosure Report - August 2008
San Bernardino County Foreclosure Report - August 2008
FORECLOSURERADAR.COM – San Bernardino County – August 2008
In reviewing the foreclosure statistics for San Bernardino County we found that even though the foreclosure activity appeared to be near it’s peak it looks like a second wave of foreclosures are about to come over us. The summer sales numbers which increased greatly from earlier months of the year are now dropping at a high rate thus we will start building inventory which will increase the speed at which prices fall and drive more foreclosures.
The ratio of the NOS’s to NOD’s, with a 90 day lag, continues at an alarmingly high ratio, as it continues at a high rate as it has all year, currently it is at 87% down 1% from last month. (Why a 90 day lag on the data? NOD’s expire and move into NOS’s at 90 days)
The number of NOD’s had peaked in June at 4,281, this month bounced back from last month to 4,211 a 2.9% increase. We are on track to book 48,000 NOD’s and 33,000 NOS’s in 2008, let’s hope for a better year in 2009.
Here is where we break out the crystal ball, we predict the following:
NOS’s for August will be 3,663 – Actual 3,570 2.5% lower than forecasted.
NOS’s for September will be 3,767
NOS’s for October will be 3,602
NOS’s for November will be 3,705
We used 88% of the NOD’s to come up with these numbers with a 90 day lag. Keep in mind that the NOS cure rate is still around 12% so the actual number of foreclosures will be less.
How was last month’s prediction?
We predicted the NOS’s would hit approx. 3,663 in AUGUST 2008, they came in at 3,570. Our prediction was off by 93 units.
Jumping out on a limb?
After reviewing the data I am going to jump out on a limb here. I predict that the second wave of foreclosures is going to come through this winter, I am already seeing sales dry up and fast. Inventory will build, prices will drop and foreclosures will pile up. Someone remember to have me review this post in February 2009 as I believe that the story will be written by then.
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Here is the raw data: Data Source: foreclosureradar.com - Analysis Empire Realty |
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NOD's - Notice of Default |
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Mar |
Apr |
May |
Jun |
Jul |
Aug |
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2006 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
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2007 |
1,623 |
1,586 |
1,786 |
2,038 |
2,272 |
2,693 |
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2008 |
4,035 |
4,150 |
4,106 |
4,281 |
4,094 |
4,211 |
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2008 % Change M to M |
15.4% |
2.9% |
-1.1% |
4.3% |
-4.4% |
2.9% |
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2008 % Change Y to Y |
148.6% |
161.7% |
129.9% |
110.1% |
80.2% |
56.4% |
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NOS's - Notice of Sale |
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Mar |
Apr |
May |
Jun |
Jul |
Aug |
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2006 |
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|
|
|
|
|
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2007 |
883 |
785 |
1,103 |
1,034 |
1,253 |
1,295 |
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2008 |
2,615 |
2,982 |
3,359 |
3,451 |
3,650 |
3,570 |
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2008 % Change M to M |
93.4% |
14.0% |
12.6% |
2.7% |
5.8% |
-2.2% |
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2008 % Change Y to Y |
196.1% |
279.9% |
204.5% |
233.8% |
191.3% |
175.7% |
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Data Source: foreclosureradar.com - Analysis Empire Realty |
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