FORECLOSURERADAR.COM – San Bernardino County – June 2008

In reviewing the foreclosure statistics for San Bernardino County we found that we continue to be near the peak of the foreclosure activity in this county just as we are in Riverside County. Due to the recent passing of SB 1137 we expect the number of NOD’s and NOS’s to decrease drastically for a couple months while the banks catch up to the new notification process, once this is complete we expect the number of NOD’s and NOS’s to come back with a vengeance as the banks catch up on the backlog.  For the full impact of SB 1137 on the foreclosure process review our earlier post titled SB 1137 will change foreclosure numbers.

The ratio of the NOS’s to NOD’s, with a 90 day lag, continues at an alarmingly high ratio, as it continues at a high rate as it has al year, currently it is at 86%. (Why a 90 day lag on the data? NOD’s expire and move into NOS’s at 90 days)

Further, the ratio of cancelations to NOS’s has decreased sharply in the last couple years to just 12% for the first six months of the year.  Historically this ratio runs around 60% of the NOS’s in an appreciating market.

The number of NOD’s has peaked this year at 4,281, we expect them to increase to a new peak once SB 1137 takes hold.

Here is where we break out the crystal ball, we predict the following:

NOS’s for July will be 3,652,

NOS’s for August will be 3,663

NOS’s for September will be 3,767

We used 88% of the NOD’s to come up with these numbers with a 90 day lag. Keep in mind that the NOS cure rate is still around 12% so the actual number of foreclosures will be less.  Also, SB1137 may greatly distort these predictions. In either case they will go bad in the months stated or all come through in the future due to the SB, the SB does not provide any real help for the homeowner it just delays the inevitable.

How was last month’s prediction?

We predicted the NOS’s would hit approx. 3,100 in July 2008, they came in at 3,451. Our prediction was 10.2% light, that is why they call it a prediction.

Here is the raw data:

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